Alexander Gostev, director of the global research and analysis team at Kaspersky Lab, said that one of the most significant incidents in the IT underworld during 2009 was a slowdown in the growth of newly emerging threats.
However, he said, malware is becoming more sophisticated – along with a growth in the number of global epidemics, infected web resources (one in 150 websites is currently spreading infections), a variety of scams, and the development of malware for alternative platforms and devices – and have become major sources of digital pollution.
During 2009, Gostev said there were eight malware programs that affected more than one million computers, most notably the polymorphic worm Kido (Conficker) that reached over seven million infections and is expected to remain an active global epidemic throughout 2010.
Gostev said that one positive outcome has been the creation of the Conficker Working Group, which was the first example of broad international co-operation to deal with such a widespread threat.
Although attracting less notoriety, he went on to say, the Gumblar self-spreading software botnet came in waves during 2009 and affected tens of thousands of computers by re-directing internet users from legal websites to illegal malicious servers, or redirecting to infected but legal websites.
Gostev added that Kaspersky has seen a boom in internet-based fraud and specifically fake anti-virus software, with figures from the internet crime complaint centre estimating revenues from fake anti-virus reaching $150 million in 2009.
Looking towards the rest of 2010, Kaspersky Lab forecasts a significant increase in attacks through peer-to-peer networks, the emergence of more 'grey' schemes in the botnet services market, as well as a rise in the number of attacks via Google Wave.
The company is also anticipating a rise in the number of mobile device threats, exploiting the popularity of Google Android and the Apple iPhone.