The anonymous Tor network will suffer a major DDoS attack in 2015, most likely by a nation state, bringing the platform to its knees, according to messaging security firm Cloudmark.
The vendor made the predictions in a new blog post looking ahead to the major security trends of the next 12 months.
It argued that because Tor has a limited number of endpoints – connected to the rest of the internet and publicly listed – launching such an attack would be within the capabilities of any serious attacker.
Andrew Conway, research analyst at Cloudmark, told Infosecurity that an “agency of a nation state” is most likely to publicly launch such an attack next year either because of the illegal activities Tor helps protect, such as sites like Silk Road, or because it feels “politically threatened by the content.”
“We may never really know who is directly responsible as it will likely be a secret or false flag operation. For example, an oppressive nation state would have reasons to do this to prevent dissidents from using it but blame it on US law enforcement,” he argued.
“On the other hand, if a drug sale site like Silk Road is set up with the servers and principals in a country outside the reach of US law enforcement, I could see law enforcement doing it to make it easier to track down the users of the website by monitoring traffic to that IP address.”
Other Cloudmark predictions for 2015 include more attacks on payment systems and the building out of elite cyber-espionage teams by more nation states.
It added that government takedowns of drugs marketplaces like Silk Road and Silk Road 2 will continue, but as long as Tor is up new ones will arrive to take their place.
The recent capture of alleged Silk Road 2 mastermind Blake Benthall came not as a result of the Feds somehow deanonymizing the Tor network, but thanks to an undercover Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) agent who successfully infiltrated the site’s support staff.